It will be a game of fine margins when Spain take on France in the first Euro 2024 semifinal on Tuesday night

A mere victory away from this summer’s showpiece event in Berlin, continental heavyweights Spain and France are set to clash in the Euro 2024 semi-finals on Tuesday. Both teams have been pragmatic rather than spectacular this summer and the clash on Tuesday will be a proper tactical matchup between Didier Deschamps and Luis de La Fuente.

Spain, boasting a flawless record so far, reached Munich by eliminating the hosts, Germany in a dramatic quarter-final. La Roja struck in the dying minutes of extra time to claim a 2-1 win in Stuttgart. Dani Olmo, brought on for the injured Pedri, opened the scoring, but Germany equalized through Florian Wirtz. Just as the game seemed destined for penalties, Mikel Merino’s powerful header secured Spain’s place in the semis.

Under the guidance of Luis de la Fuente, Spain have been a formidable force. They are the only team to have won all five of their matches in the tournament. No nation in European Championship history has won six times in a single finals or posted six consecutive wins. De la Fuente, who took over from Luis Enrique, has implemented a tactical shift that has paid dividends. Spain have recorded lower possession than their opponents twice this summer, a significant departure from their ball-heavy traditional style of football.

This new approach, featuring quick passing and pace out wide, has been highly effective. Since the start of 2023, Spain has the best win percentage of any European nation, winning 15 of their 19 games under De la Fuente. Their victory in the most recent UEFA Nations League means they are now on their best winning run since the glory days of June 2010.

Spain have advanced from four of their five European Championship semi-finals, with their only defeat coming in a penalty shootout against eventual winners Italy three years ago. They now aim to reach their fifth continental final and their first since their dominant run culminated in victory at Euro 2012.

Meanwhile, France are aiming to reach their fourth European Championship final, but only their second outside of French soil. Didier Deschamps, who oversaw their 2016 final defeat to Portugal in Paris, is determined to go one better this time. Having fallen at the final hurdle in the 2022 FIFA World Cup, Les Bleus will hope to make amends on the continental stage.

Since their loss in the 2022 World Cup final, France’s progress has been less smooth compared to Spain’s. They were uninspired in their last-16 win over Belgium and narrowly edged past Portugal in the quarter-finals. Goalkeeper Mike Maignan made crucial saves to take the tie into extra time, and Theo Hernandez scored the decisive penalty in Hamburg.

Concerns over the form and fitness of captain Kylian Mbappe have persisted, as Real Madrid’s newest ‘galactico’ was forced off before the shootout. Despite Mbappe’s struggles, France has managed to find a way to advance. They have scored only four goals in their five Euro 2024 matches, three of which came from penalties or own goals. The inability to find the back of the net remains a major concern in the business end of the competition.

France’s style may not be as aesthetically pleasing as Spain’s, but they have been effective. They beat Spain 2-1 in their most recent meeting, the 2021 Nations League final, and few would bet against them in this semi-final clash. SoccerSouls predicts a close clash with little to separate them on the night. We take a look at how both sides could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.

Team News and Predicted XI

Spain

Spain’s close win over Germany in the last eight came with a cost. Daniel Carvajal and Robin Le Normand are both suspended for the game while midfield maestro Pedri will miss the rest of the tournament thanks to a medial collateral ligament sprain. De La Fuente will hope that his squad can make up for the three absences.

La Roja are expected to line up in their traditional 4-3-3 formation with the excellent Unai Simon in goal. Real Madrid skipper Nacho and Aymeric Laporte should hold firm at centre-back with Jesus Navas and Marc Cucurella pushing forward at wing-back.

Rodri should once again form the pivot in the midfield, with Dani Olmo and Fabian Ruiz pushing forward. Skipper Alvaro Morata should lead the line with the electric duo of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams providing support.

Predicted Playing XI (4-3-3): Simon: Navas, Nacho, Laporte, Cucurella; Olmo, Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Morata, Williams

France

With the slate wiped clean regarding bookings, France have no disciplinary issues to worry about. However, Kylian Mbappe’s nose injury remains a source of concern for Didier Deschamps and his team.

The former Paris Saint-Germain striker has scored only one goal from 20 shots at Euro 2024 thus far and will need to discover his shooting boots to give France a good chance of making the final.

Deschamps is likely to continue with the 4-3-1-2 formation with the excellent Mike Maignan in goal. The AC Milan stopper should be protected by the back four of Jules Kounde, William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano and Theo Hernandez.

N’Golo Kante and Aurelien Tchouameni should form the double pivot in the midfield, freeing up Adrien Rabiot to push forward and help Antoine Griezmann in the number 10 role. Kylian Mbappe and Randal Kolo Muani will lead the line and hope to end their nation’s poor goalscoring form in the tournament.

Predicted Playing XI (4-3-1-2): Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Hernandez; Kante, Tchouameni, Rabiot; Griezmann; Kolo Muani, Mbappe

Key Stats

• Spain have advanced from four of their five European Championship semi-finals in history.
• A win on the night will see Spain become the first side to win six consecutive games in the same finals of the European Championships.
• Mike Maignan can boast a save ratio of 94%, the best ratio of any shot-stopper in the tournament.
• Both teams have faced off 36 times so far, with Spain coming out on top 16 times and France winning 13 games.
• Spain have won just one their six clashes against France at the European Championships.

Match Deciding Duel

Lamine Yamal (Spain) vs Theo Hernandez (France)

Lamal has certainly brought his A game to the tournament and will once again be Spain’s electric creator down their right flank. With Theo Hernandez and Adrien Rabiot likely to provide the thrust on the flanks for France, there will be space for Spain and Yamal to run into on the night.

This should work in the Iberian giants’ favour should Dani Olmo and Nico Williams stretch France, bringing Upamecano out of position. This should open up space for Morata to run into and cause havoc. Yamal’s eye for the audacious and his ability to get past players will certainly keep France on their toes.

Prediction

Spain 1-1 France (France to Progress on Penalties)

Given the stakes, the game is likely to be tightly contested. France have more match-winners in their squad and coupled with the absentees for Spain should give Les Bleus the advantage. The match is likely to go right down to the wire with Mike Maignan likely to come up trumps for his side in the penalty shootout.

Portugal meet France in a high-voltage battle in the Euro 2024 quarterfinals

Portugal had to rely on penalties to secure a spot in the quarterfinals of the Euro 2024 against Slovenia. Cristiano Ronaldo had a golden opportunity to put the Selecao ahead in the 105th minute, but Jan Oblak’s heroic save denied the 39-year-old from becoming the tournament’s oldest goalscorer. Overall, Portugal have been an uninspired side, struggling to win convincingly despite their wealth of talent, which should have been capable of dominating in such major tournaments.

Next up, Portugal faces another tricky challenge in the quarterfinals against France. This match promises to be intriguing as both sides have appeared lacklustre in their respective games.

France will need to elevate their performance to live up to their billing as tournament favourites, as they have often looked like a shadow of their former selves. Kylian Mbappe, who has only scored once in the tournament, will need to step up and show his capabilities. France’s group stage performances were underwhelming, with only one win, leading to a second-place finish. In the round of 16, they relied on an own goal from their opponents to advance to the last eight.

If France continue to play with the same lacklustre approach, their chances of advancing further in the tournament appear slim. Didier Deschamps seems to have struggled to assemble a cohesive team that can secure victories. Both teams will need to improve significantly to keep their Euro 2024 hopes alive.

Portugal vs France is scheduled to kick off at 8 PM BST at Volksparkstadion Stadium in Hamburg, Germany.

Team news

Portugal

Playing for 120 minutes in their previous match will undoubtedly take a toll on the Portugal team, with many players likely to be fatigued before they face France in four days. However, it seems unlikely that Roberto Martinez will make significant changes to his lineup against Les Bleus.

Martinez is expected to stick with a similar 4-3-3 formation. Diogo Jota, who put in a heroic performance against Slovenia, will continue in goal. Joao Cancelo will remain at right-back, while Ruben Dias and Pepe will form the central defensive partnership, with Nuno Mendes operating at left-back.

In midfield, Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, and Joao Palhinha will dictate the flow of the game. The trio has been impressive throughout the competition, providing balance and stability to the squad.

In the attacking line, Bernardo Silva will take his place on the right wing, using his creativity and vision to unlock defences. On the left wing, Rafael Leao will utilize his pace and dribbling skills to challenge defenders, while Cristiano Ronaldo, who is yet to score in this competition, will lead the line as the central striker, hoping to finally break his goal drought.

Portugal’s ability to manage fatigue and maintain their intensity will be crucial as they prepare to face a formidable French side.

Portugal Predicted XI (4-3-3): Costa; Cancelo; Dias; Pepe; Mendes; Vitinha; Fernandes; Palhinha; Silva; Leao; Ronaldo

France

Deschamps will be without Adrien Rabiot, who picked up a second yellow card and will miss the game. Consequently, Eduardo Camavinga is expected to replace the Juventus star in the lineup. The rest of the squad remains fit and ready to play.

France will likely employ a 4-3-1-2 formation. Mike Maignan will continue as the starting goalkeeper after an impressive performance against Belgium, where he made several crucial saves to keep France in the competition. Jules Kounde, who was excellent against Belgium and managed to neutralize the threat posed by Jeremy Doku, will play as the right-back.

The central defence will be anchored by Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba, who were formidable in their last match, preventing Belgium from scoring. Theo Hernandez, known for his critical tackles, will retain his position at left-back.

In midfield, N’Golo Kante, Aurelien Tchouameni, and Eduardo Camavinga will form a robust trio. Antoine Griezmann will assume the role of an attacking midfielder, tasked with creating scoring opportunities for Kylian Mbappe and Marcus Thuram, who will play as the strikers.

France Predicted XI (4-3-1-2): Maignan; Kounde; Upamecano; Saliba; Hernandez; Kante; Tchouameni; Camavinga; Griezmann; Thuram; Mbappe

Portugal vs. France: key match facts

• France has scored only three goals in the competition, while the other two came from own goals by opposition teams.
• If Cristiano Ronaldo scores against France, he will become the oldest goalscorer in competition history.
• Portugal have won just six of their 28 games against France. Les Bleus have won 19, with the remaining three ending in a draw.
• Portugal have won just one of their last 14 games in all competitions.

Portugal vs. France: Match-deciding duels

Rafael Leao vs. Jules Kounde

Rafael Leao, one of the finest left-wingers in football, is renowned for his pace and ability to take on defenders. His performance against France will be critical, and his battle with Jules Kounde promises to be a fascinating clash. Kounde, who successfully neutralized the threat of Jeremy Doku in France’s previous match, will be highly motivated to repeat his defensive heroics.

However, Leao presents a different challenge. His strength and aggression make him a formidable opponent, capable of outmuscling any right-back. Kounde will need to be at the top of his game to contain Leao’s relentless attacks.

This duel on the left flank could significantly impact the outcome of the match. If Leao can exploit his speed and physicality to bypass Kounde, he could create numerous scoring opportunities for Portugal. Conversely, if Kounde manages to keep Leao quiet, it could stifle Portugal’s attacking prowess and give France a defensive edge.

Prediction

Portugal 1-0 France

Both Portugal and France have been lacklustre so far in the tournament and need to show their true potential. Portugal boasts outstanding players in every position, while France has an abundance of quality and talent. This match has the potential to be a thrilling encounter, with both teams likely to force extra time. Given Portugal’s resilience and their ability to perform in high-pressure situations, we predict that they will edge out France in a penalty shootout to secure their place in the semifinals.

France vs Belgium is the pick of the draw with a quarterfinal spot on the line

Both teams have not found their feet in this year’s tournament yet. France are out to kiss the European Championship trophy this summer after failing to do so in the past couple of times when they entered the tournament as clear favourites, and Belgium, on the other hand, barely look like the giants they are as they look to fulfil their potential and clinch a major international silverware before another set of players from their golden generation retires.

Didier Deschamps’s side have not been their usual selves this summer as they have struggled to score goals in the ongoing European campaign. Les Blues have netted only two goals in three games, with one of them being an own goal, which earned them their only win of the tournament as Maximilian Wober’s goal proved enough for France to get better than Austria by a 1-0 margin. That win followed two draws against the Netherlands and Poland, as they rounded out the group as runners-up with five points behind Ralf Rangnick of Austria by six points.

The French gaffer has been on the receiving end of massive criticism as his side has lacked cohesion and consistency this campaign despite their individual brilliance. The 55-year-old insists that off-pitch political matters are at the heart of disrupting the French roster.

There are a lot of chances that haven’t gone the French way. Ousmane Dembele has been playing with freedom and intent; however, he has not been able to show any end product for all the dribbling he does. Kylian Mbappe is dealing with injuries, and N’Golo Kante is still carrying their midfield. Deschamps would be hoping that his stars step up and pull through as we enter the knockouts, and one bad game could put an end to their time in Germany.

Belgium have even bigger issues than the French side going into the game; there is a clear lack of a fixed technical approach from Domenico Tedesco’s side as they have been all over the place going into the final third. The Red Devils started their European campaign with a surprise 1-0 defeat against Francesco Calzona’s Slovakia, as an early goal from Slavia Prague winger Ivan Schranz proved enough at the night. Tedesco’s men did get a win against Romania with a two-goal margin after Youri Tielemans put them ahead in the first couple of minutes. 

However, going into the final matchday, Belgium’s hopes to qualify for the last sixteen were still hanging by a thread as they clinched the runners-up place in Group E on goal difference as all four teams finished on four points, highlighting the narrow margins that this competition is characterised for. 

France will face Belgium on Monday, July 1, 2024, at Dusseldorf Arena in a 5 p.m. BST kick-off. The winners of this game will face Portugal or Slovenia in the quarterfinals.

France vs Belgium: Team News

France

Real Madrid’s summer signing Kylian Mbappe was fit enough to start against Poland in the last game of the group, albeit with a face mask, but he should be fit enough to help Les Blues for the rest of the European Championships. Deschamps brought in Bradley Barcola on the left wing by dropping Antoine Griezmann in their final game of the group, and while the PSG winger had a few glimpses of his potential, he hasn’t done enough to keep his place in the squad for the knockouts. 

The same goes on for Tchouameni, and Deschamos can revert to his 4-2-3-1 formation and push Mbappe out wide to create space for either Olivier Giroud or Marcus Thuram upfront. This can work out as N’Golo Kante provides defensive stability in front of the defensive line and allows more cohesion between the offensive players. 

Didier Deschamps will continue to entrust AC Milan goalkeeper Mike Maignan between the sticks with Jules Kounde and Theo Hernandez continuing in the full-back role as William Saliba continues to get the nod ahead of Liverpool defender Konate alongside Upamecano to complete the backline. Rabiot to make the pivot in the middle of the park with Saudi Pro midfielder N’Golo Kante. Ousmane Dembele continues on the right flank, with Mbappe slotting in on the left flank. Antoine Griezmann takes up the number-ten cum second striker role, with Olivier Giroud coming in upfront as both Thuram and Kolo Muani have not impressed enough in this summer campaign.

France Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Mike Maignan, Jules Kounde, William Saliba, Upamecano, Theo Hernandez, Rabiot, N’Golo Kante, Ousmane Dembele, Anotine Griezmann, Kylian Mbappe, and Olivier Giroud

Belgium

Romelu Lukaku has been unlucky with his off-side calls in the ongoing campaign, and he has barely looked at his best this Euro. Domenico Tedesco has a task on his hands to ensure that his attacks find some cohesion on the pitch, as it has looked a bit over the place with wingers slotting in and full-backs overlapping. Tedesco will have to scratch his head once again to find a way to fit his attacking talent in a balanced system as Sevilla winger Dodi Lukebakio returns from his suspension to give an alternative option to Leandro Trossard and Doku. 

Trossard is playing on the unfamiliar right wing to fit in Doku on the left, and the Arsenal man has struggled to adapt to his right-wing role and replicate the usual qualities that he brings to the table. He isn’t taking up spaces, which can hurt the opponents, and Tedesco needs to consider whether the Arsenal winger should return to his familiar flank with Doku, who hasn’t impressed enough in the ongoing campaign.

Wolfsburg goalkeeper Koen Casteels will continue with the gloves, as Timothy Castagne will take up the right wing-back role alongside the duo of ever-young Jan Vertonghen and Leicester City defender Wout Faes. Arthur Theate should get the nod in the left centre-back position. Tielemans and Onana take up the midfield spots, with Jeremy Doku in the left-wingback role as Dodi Lukebakio returns into the lineup alongside Kevin de Bruyne in a support role to Romelu Lukaku upfront.

Belgium Predicted XI (3-4-2-1): Koen Casteels, Timothy Castagne, Jan Vertonghen, Wout Faes, Arthur Theate, Youri Tielemans, Amadou Onana, Jeremy Doku, Dodi Lukebakio, Kevin de Bruyne, and Romelu Lukaku.

France vs Belgium: Key Stats

• Belgium lost to France in the 2018 World Cup semi-finals.
• France has not lost in the last six games. 
• Belgium have won 30 games to France’s 26 in their head-to-head meetings with 19 draws.
• Kylian Mbappe has scored one goal for France; no one else has gotten on the scoresheets in the ongoing EUROs for Les Blues yet.

Match-deciding duel

Kylian Mbappe vs. Timothy Castagne

Mbappe has the capacity to decide games on his own; looking back, he nearly decided the outcome of the recent FIFA World Cup on his own. He is one of the, if not the, best players in world football, and France will be looking to unleash his potential in the knockout. He should be highly involved in the game and would be forcing some individual dominance to get the upper hand on the game.

While Castagne likes to roam around and get involved in attacking sequences, he will have to be aware of the threat behind him and ensure he doesn’t get carried away out of position. The Fulham defender will need to limit Mbappe’s threat for Belgium to have a chance of beating the French side. 

Prediction

France 2-0 Belgium

While both teams have been struggling, France has the individual quality and depth to complement their experience in high-stakes games and come out with a positive result. Belgium have been a bit unbalanced in making an impact so far, and that trend should continue if they try to fill in big-name attacking-output players over the balance of the squad.