Merseyside, Crystal Palace and the law of averages
There will be lots of introspection. And regret too. As Liverpool and Brendan Rodgers ruminate over how they blew the chance to win their team’s first-and Steven Gerrard’s- Premier League title, there will be much finger pointing. A plethora of moments, games will be hailed as the “moment the title race ‘slipped’ away” from them. That Steven Gerrard slip, those kamikaze 10 minutes at Selhurst Park arising out of the “Roy of the Rovers” football (in the words of Brendan Rodgers) that served them so well through vast stretches of the season, the lack of a defensive leader etc etc..But what has not been mentioned much was the fact that even as Liverpool embarked on a mind-blowing run of wins, with each victory they were up against the weight of history- in addition to the pressure of trying to win a league championship.
As we all know all things-good or bad-come to an end sooner or later. We often hear this with reference to a string of victories or a string of losses in football. Some day, the streak will snap with results evening out in the process. Law of averages and all that you see. As Liverpool embarked on a sensational run of victories, there was always the threat of it grinding to a halt. And it did as they failed to burst through the “double bus” parked by Chelsea at Anfield. The warning signs had been there in the games before. The win against Manchester City came in slightly fortuitous circumstances. The Kompany error that led to Coutinho’s winner seemed like a seminal moment in the Premier League title race. But Gerrard’s slip proved more seminal than that.
Here again, the fact that they were up against the weight of history should not be ignored. After their rather nervy 3-2 win at Norwich, Liverpool were on an 11-game winning run. While Martin O’Neill’s Celtic side of 2003-04 won 25 games in a row on route to the title, such winning streaks have been a rarity in the Premier League. The Arsenal side of 2001-02 won the last 13 games of the season, en-route to clinching the Premier League- at Old Trafford of all places. Similarly, the Manchester United side of 1999-2000 won 11 games in a row at the end of the season and then won again on the opening day of the next season to make it 12 in a row.
Liverpool themselves embarked on a 10-game winning streak in 2005-06 after a slow start to the season during which they won 2 out of 7 games. Such streaks seldom occur and, even when they do, rarely last 15 or 16 games. So, as much as one can point at Liverpool’s defence, their gung-ho approach and all possible factors, let us acknowledge the fact that maintaining such a winning sequence was never going to be possible. Though they will harbour regrets over the manner in which they spurned their chance to win the league title, on the whole, this has been an extremely successful season for Liverpool.
Everton & The Law of Averages
Everton too, in their pursuit of Champions League football were up against history even as they comprehensively outplayed Arsenal at home and looked in pole position to secure 4th place. Even before their win against the Gunners, their winning streak of 6 games was their longest in 11 years. Post the 3-0 win, Everton were now on their longest Premier League winning streak of 7 games. So, going into the home game against Crystal Palace-which they unexpectedly lost- the Toffees were entering uncharted territory.
Whilst everyone proclaimed Everton favourites to clinch 4th spot, it was quite evident from the fixture list that it was never going to be easy. Add to it the fact that they were on such a run made them all the more susceptible to tripping up.It’s the Law of Averrages you see. Incidentally, Crystal Palace have seriously thwarted both the Merseyside clubs’ ambitions this season. While Liverpool’s 3-3 draw at Selhurst Park all but ended the title race, their 3-2 win at Goodison Park snapped Everton’s winning run and sapped all the momentum off their campaign.
So, even as fans of both clubs contemplate all the could-haves,would-haves and should-haves, they would do well to spare a thought for the Law of Averages.