Heading into the summer transfer window, both Arsenal and Chelsea were in dire need of defensive enforcements. Both teams had center backs that were out injured or in general needed to be upgraded on. Chelsea opted to re-sign David Luiz, whereas Arsenal chose to bring Shkodran Mustafi, a German international who was with Valencia at the time. Both signings were confirmed relatively late in the transfer window.
They have been vital for their team’s success so far as both have fitted in respectively at their clubs. It was like a homecoming for Brazilian Luiz. The charismatic center back had spent close to 3 years at Stamford Bridge before he moved to Paris Saint-Germain. Mustafi, on the other hand, had become a really important player for Valencia and one can see why these two center backs were bought by their teams. Both have performed similarly so far this season and hence a comparison between these two players makes perfect sense.
Antonio Conte seems to have transformed David Luiz into a highly effective defender. The Brazilian was error-prone in his previous stay at Chelsea. The Brazilian has played 6 games so far this season, whereas his German counterpart has played 7. Mustafi edges out Luiz in tackles per game as he averages 2.7 tackles, whereas the Brazilian scores 1.5. Both Arsenal and Chelsea are teams that like to have possession of the ball and hence interceptions are a key part of how both the teams express themselves. The German again edges out Luiz in interceptions per game as he scores 2.7 whereas Luiz scores 1.7.
Luiz is part of a 3 man defence, whereas Mustafi is partnered by Laurent Koscielny alone. That perhaps explains the next stat, tackles per game. The former Valencia man averages 1.1 whereas Luiz averages 0.8 per game. Coming to offsides won per game, Mustafi again has the upper-hand on his counterpart from Chelsea, as he wins an average of 1.1 offsides per game. The Brazilian wins an average of 0.7.
Mustafi also edges out Luiz in aerial duels won per game as he averages around 3 per game. Luiz, on the other hand, averages 1.8. Clearances are an important part of a defender’s game. Mustafi again trumps his rival from across London as he makes around 5.1 clearances per game, whereas Luiz makes 4.8 clearances. When it comes to blocks, The Brazilian has the upper-hand on Mustafi. He averages 1 block(s)per game whereas Mustafi averages 0.1 per game.
The maverick Brazilian defender might have cleaned up his act to some extent, but he still gets dispossessed on the ball. He averages 0.3 of such moments per game. Whereas Mustafi has a score of just 0.1. Luiz also has a bad stat when it comes to getting dribbled past. He gets dribbled past 0.7 times per game whereas Mustafi does slightly better, getting dribbled past 0.4 times per game.
Both players have done decently when it comes to their disciplinary record as they have only 1 yellow card to their name each. This will delight both managers and will expect their new signings to continue their good form and prolong it into the rest of the season. All in all, Mustafi does edge out David Luiz and gets an overall WhoScored rating of 7.46. Luiz, on the other hand, gets a rating of 7.21.
Arsenal‘s defensive rock Gabriel Magalhaes was forced off injured during Brazil’s 2-0 friendly victory over Senegal at the Emirates Stadium on November 15, casting doubt over his availability for the crucial North London derby against Tottenham next weekend.
Read More: AI Predicts Upcoming Heated North London Derby Between Arsenal Women and Tottenham Hotspur Women
The Injury Incident
Gabriel went down clutching his right groin area in the 64th minute after either a stretching midfield tackle on Nicolas Jackson or the subsequent sprint back to goal. The 27-year-old received treatment on the pitch before limping off visibly uncomfortable, with Manchester United midfielder Casemiro signaling to Brazil manager Carlo Ancelotti that his teammate couldn’t continue.
Wesley replaced Gabriel as Brazil secured victory through goals from Chelsea’s Estevao and Casemiro, but the result was overshadowed by concern over Arsenal’s defensive leader. The injury occurred during a meaningless friendly with Brazil already qualified for the 2026 World Cup, adding to Arsenal fans’ frustration expressed on social media.
Ancelotti’s Post-Match Assessment
Brazil boss Carlo Ancelotti confirmed after the match that Gabriel had suffered an adductor problem, though the severity remains unclear. “Bad? I don’t know, he had a problem on his adductor, the medical staff have to check tomorrow,” Ancelotti stated. “We are really sorry for this, really disappointed when players have an injury. I hope they can recover well and soon.”
Medical experts suggest adductor injuries typically fall into three categories. A grade 1 strain involves minor muscle fiber damage requiring one to two weeks recovery. A grade 2 injury means partial muscle tear with three to six weeks needed. A grade 3 represents complete muscle or tendon rupture requiring surgery and two to three months minimum recovery.
Impact on Arsenal’s Crucial Fixtures
Gabriel has been Arsenal’s defensive cornerstone this season, forming Europe’s most dominant center-back partnership with William Saliba. The Gunners have conceded just five goals in 11 Premier League matches while maintaining a four-point lead at the summit. Gabriel has contributed two goals and two assists from set pieces, making his absence doubly damaging.
Arsenal face Tottenham on November 23, Bayern Munich on November 26, and Chelsea on November 30—a brutal sequence that could define their season. Even a grade 1 injury would likely rule Gabriel out of the North London derby, while anything more serious could sideline him for all three fixtures and potentially beyond.
With Riccardo Calafiori already ruled out of Italy’s qualifier against Norway with a hip issue, Mikel Arteta faces defensive crisis management. His likely options are deploying Jurrien Timber or Piero Hincapie alongside Saliba, neither of whom have Gabriel’s aerial dominance or set-piece threat that’s become crucial to Arsenal’s attacking strategy.
Arsenal Dragon
Ailing Katie Reid Receives Words of Consolation From Arsenal Loanee Suffering From Same Injury
Katie Reid’s devastating ACL injury has drawn emotional support from Arsenal loanee Michelle Agyemang, who suffered the identical injury just weeks earlier.
The 19-year-old Brit announced her season-ending injury on Instagram, writing: “Am devastated to share that i have ruptured my ACL. There’s been lots of tears and i am sure there will be many more to come, but i am extremely grateful for the love and support around me.The road to recovery starts now and I’ll give my all to be back stronger.”
Check out Katie Reid’s post below:
Among the flood of supportive comments, Agyemang’s response carried particular weigh. She wrote: “With you all the way, my girl.”
A Shared Journey Through Adversity
Both teenagers are now facing the same brutal reality. Reid ruptured her ACL during training last week, becoming the seventh WSL player this season to suffer the injury. Agyemang, also 19, was stretchered off during England’s friendly against Australia in late October.
The timing couldn’t be crueler for Reid. After forcing her way into Arsenal’s starting lineup ahead of experienced internationals like Lotte Wubben-Moy and Laia Codina, she earned Arsenal’s Player of the Month award for September and received her first senior England call-up. That breakthrough has now been halted for the remainder of the 2025/26 season.
Arsenal confirmed Reid will undergo surgery this week and remain under close supervision at their Sobha Realty Training Centre. She joins teammates Agyemang and goalkeeper Manuela Zinsberger, who also suffered an ACL injury this season.
Research indicates female players are two to six times more likely than men to suffer these injuries, prompting FIFA-funded studies into potential contributing factors including hormonal fluctuations during menstrual cycles.
Also read: AI Predicts Upcoming Heated North London Derby Between Arsenal Women and Tottenham Hotspur Women
Arsenal Dragon
AI Predicts Upcoming Heated North London Derby Between Arsenal Women and Tottenham Hotspur Women
The Opta supercomputer has delivered its verdict on Sunday’s north London derby at Brisbane Road, giving Arsenal Women a commanding 62.9% chance of victory compared to Tottenham’s 17.4% probability. A draw sits at 19.7%, reflecting Arsenal’s overwhelming dominance in this fixture despite their recent injury crisis.
Arsenal’s Historical Dominance Backs Prediction
Arsenal have lost just once to Tottenham in WSL history, winning nine of 11 meetings while drawing once as well. Their most recent WSL encounter earlier this year, ended 5-0 in favor of Arsenal, a proper one-sided hammering. This statistical superiority underpins the AI’s confidence in Arsenal maintaining their impressive derby record.
Tottenham have hardly kept a clean sheet against Arsenal in their WSL h2h history. This defensive vulnerability against Arsenal specifically suggests the Gunners’ attacking quality consistently overwhelms Spurs’ backline regardless of form or circumstances.
Their potency remains intact despite missing three players to season-ending ACL injuries—Katie Reid, Manuela Zinsberger, and Michelle Agyemang.
Over 3.5 Goals Market Offers Value
Betting markets highlight over 3.5 goals at 2.60 odds as the primary value play. Both sides have demonstrated scoring potential recently, with Tottenham involved in a 4-2 contest at London City Lionesses and Arsenal producing a 3-2 loss against Bayern Munich in Wednesday’s Champions League fixture.
The combination of Tottenham’s unpredictable defensive moments and Arsenal’s confident forward play supports a high-scoring encounter. Arsenal’s 4-1 victory at Leicester Women demonstrated their ability to control matches while creating sustained pressure, suggesting they’ll dominate possession and generate numerous chances.
Correct Score Prediction: Arsenal 3-0
The AI predicts a 3-0 Arsenal victory based on historical patterns and current form trajectories.
Arsenal’s defensive record of just eight goals conceded in league play provides confidence they’ll shut out Tottenham while their attacking firepower, led by Alessia Russo and Beth Mead, should overwhelm Spurs’ fragile backline at Brisbane Road.
Read More: Injury Update From International Camp About Key Defender Brings Relief to Arsenal’s Mikel Arteta
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