As Arsenal returned to the top of the table- on goal difference- after the 1-1 draw at the Hawrthons against West Brom, most Arsenal fans and football journalists credited the team for coming away with a point in what was a closely fought game. With 16 points from 7 games Arsenal have made a very good start to the season- especially after the opening day defeat at home to Aston Villa, which brought with it unprecedented anger from the stands.
But a tweet from an Arsenal fan got me thinking. It said: last season we won all these corresponding 7 games, so we must show some perspective and not get carried away. After a while Nick Harris-a well-known journalist with the twitter handle @sportingintel – tweeted this.
#afc 21 pts in 2012-13 from Villa (h), Fulham (a), Spurs (h), Sund (a), Stoke (h), Swansea (a), WBA (a). Same fixtures 2013-14: 16pts
— sportingintelligence (@sportingintel) October 6, 2013
While this is just a cold, statistical way of looking at things, there is merit in trying to find out how many points more( or less) a team has accumulated from the the same fixtures of this season compared to the previous season. For starters, it puts into perspective a team’s “brilliant” start or “poor start”. Arsenal, by all accounts, have had a very good start to the season, playing some brilliant football in the process. But, as alluded to in the tweet, last season, they took 21 points out of a possible 21 from the 7 corresponding fixtures played. This season, they have dropped 5 points in the same fixtures- dropping 3 points against Aston Villa at home ( a fixture they won last season) and dropping 2 points at West Brom. So Arsenal’s tally, as of now, in the corresponding fixtures table stands at -5. Having dropped 5 points against these teams, Arsenal need to recoup these points in the other fixtures- and improve their record against top teams- to at least reach their last season tally of 73.
On the flip side, this kind of comparison does not take into account changes teams undergo from season to season. It also does it take into account the vagaries of the fixture list. For instance, West Brom, who, with 9 points from 7 games have taken the same number of points this season from the corresponding fixtures as the previous season, have seen their squad undergo quite a number of important changes. There is no Romeu Lukaku in the Baggies side now. The Belgian played an important role in West Brom’s offensive orientation last season and they have been forced to adapt. Similarly, last season when Arsenal played at The Hawthorns, West Brom were pretty much assured of staying up in the Premier League – their primary goal- while the Gunners were involved in an almighty scrap to secure 4th place. That game was played in the second half of the season in March. This time, Arsenal and West Brom played at The Hawthorns on MatchDay 7 of the Premier League season. Our corresponding fixtures tables, quite clearly, does not take into account all these factors.
Despite these limitations, it would not be unreasonable to suggest that looking at whether a team has improved its points tally from the corresponding fixtures last season is a fair statistical indicator of a team’s position. And our corresponding fixtures table, compiled at the end of Week7, puts Southampton in pole position. Mauricio Pochettino’s side have taken 12 more points from the corresponding fixtures this season when you compare them to the points they accumulated in 2012-13.
What about the promoted sides?
Now you might be wondering how the hell do you measure the performance of the newly promoted sides. This is where we bring a bit of ingenuity or common sense(hopefully) into the equation. What we do here is compare the points tally of the newly promoted sides with that of the relegated sides. And to bring uniformity and consistency to the whole calculation, we compare and compute the points tally according to the 3 assumptions.
l Cardiff City- Championship winners last season and presumably Championship’s best performing team- will have their points tally compared against Wigan Athletic, the team which finished 18th in last season’s Premier League.
l Hull City- runners up in the Championship last season- will have their points tally compared against Reading, who finished 19th in the Premier League last season.
l Crystal Palace- playoff winners and presumably Championship’s third best team last season- will have their points tally compared against QPR, who finished 20th in the last season.
Essentially, we are comparing the team which performed the “best” among the relegated sides with the best team in last year’s Championship; the 2nd best among the relegated sides with the 2nd best team in last year’s Championship; and the 3rd best among the relegated sides with the 3rd best team in last year’s Championship.
Taking these assumptions forward, we look at how Southampton have accrued 12 points more than last season.
|
Opponent |
2012-13 points |
2013-14 points |
Difference |
|
West Brom(A) |
0 |
3 |
+3 |
|
Sunderland(H) |
0 |
1 |
+1 |
|
Norwich(A) |
1 |
0 |
-1 |
|
West ham(H) |
0 |
1 |
+1 |
|
Liverpool(A) |
0 |
3 |
+3 |
|
Crystal Palace(H) [compared with QPR] |
0 |
3 |
+3 |
|
Swansea(H) |
1 |
3 |
+2 |
|
Total |
2 |
14 |
+12 |
Sounds pretty simple doesn’t it! Now if you compile a similar table for all the teams you get this.
|
Teams |
Games Played |
Corresponding Points difference |
Premier League Points |
Premier League Positon |
| Southampton |
7 |
12 |
14 |
4 |
| Liverpool |
7 |
4 |
16 |
2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur |
7 |
4 |
13 |
6 |
| Hull City |
7 |
4 |
11 |
8 |
| Aston Villa |
7 |
4 |
10 |
10 |
| Everton |
7 |
3 |
12 |
7 |
| Newcastle United |
7 |
3 |
10 |
11 |
| Norwich City |
7 |
1 |
7 |
18 |
| Swansea City |
7 |
1 |
7 |
15 |
| West Bromwich Albion |
7 |
0 |
9 |
12 |
| West Ham United |
7 |
0 |
8 |
13 |
| Cardiff City |
7 |
0 |
8 |
14 |
| Manchester City |
7 |
-1 |
13 |
5 |
| Stoke City |
7 |
-2 |
7 |
16 |
| Fulham |
7 |
-2 |
7 |
17 |
| Crystal Palace |
7 |
-4 |
3 |
19 |
| Sunderland |
7 |
-4 |
1 |
20 |
| Arsenal |
7 |
-5 |
16 |
1 |
| Chelsea |
7 |
-5 |
14 |
3 |
| Manchester United |
7 |
-6 |
10 |
9 |
As we can see, Southampton are, statistically, the most improved team in the Premier League. And if we have two teams with the same “Corresponding Points difference”, the team which is ranked higher in the Premier League is ranked higher in our table.
Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur have taken 4 more points this season vis-a-vis the last season. So far, Hull City have been the best performing “promoted” side, having secured 11 points from the first 7 games. This is 4 points more than what Reading secured from the corresponding fixtures last season.
The bottom of this table, interestingly, features all the top PL sides with Manchester United propping up the table. While David Moyes may have had a point in saying that his team had a tough run-in in the initial part of the season, it’s worth pointing out that Manchester United secured 16 points from the same set of fixtures last season; this season they only have 10. This is a difference of -6: the most in the Premier League.
Chelsea, too, are second from bottom, having taken 14 points from 7 games this season; from the corresponding fixtures last season they took 19 points. But as we’ve said earlier, this table does not take into affect neither the “Ferguson Effect” nor the arrival of “The Special One.”
We will look at more interesting trends as the new season takes shape in the forthcoming weeks.