It will be a game of fine margins when Spain take on France in the first Euro 2024 semifinal on Tuesday night

A mere victory away from this summer’s showpiece event in Berlin, continental heavyweights Spain and France are set to clash in the Euro 2024 semi-finals on Tuesday. Both teams have been pragmatic rather than spectacular this summer and the clash on Tuesday will be a proper tactical matchup between Didier Deschamps and Luis de La Fuente.

Spain, boasting a flawless record so far, reached Munich by eliminating the hosts, Germany in a dramatic quarter-final. La Roja struck in the dying minutes of extra time to claim a 2-1 win in Stuttgart. Dani Olmo, brought on for the injured Pedri, opened the scoring, but Germany equalized through Florian Wirtz. Just as the game seemed destined for penalties, Mikel Merino’s powerful header secured Spain’s place in the semis.

Under the guidance of Luis de la Fuente, Spain have been a formidable force. They are the only team to have won all five of their matches in the tournament. No nation in European Championship history has won six times in a single finals or posted six consecutive wins. De la Fuente, who took over from Luis Enrique, has implemented a tactical shift that has paid dividends. Spain have recorded lower possession than their opponents twice this summer, a significant departure from their ball-heavy traditional style of football.

This new approach, featuring quick passing and pace out wide, has been highly effective. Since the start of 2023, Spain has the best win percentage of any European nation, winning 15 of their 19 games under De la Fuente. Their victory in the most recent UEFA Nations League means they are now on their best winning run since the glory days of June 2010.

Spain have advanced from four of their five European Championship semi-finals, with their only defeat coming in a penalty shootout against eventual winners Italy three years ago. They now aim to reach their fifth continental final and their first since their dominant run culminated in victory at Euro 2012.

Meanwhile, France are aiming to reach their fourth European Championship final, but only their second outside of French soil. Didier Deschamps, who oversaw their 2016 final defeat to Portugal in Paris, is determined to go one better this time. Having fallen at the final hurdle in the 2022 FIFA World Cup, Les Bleus will hope to make amends on the continental stage.

Since their loss in the 2022 World Cup final, France’s progress has been less smooth compared to Spain’s. They were uninspired in their last-16 win over Belgium and narrowly edged past Portugal in the quarter-finals. Goalkeeper Mike Maignan made crucial saves to take the tie into extra time, and Theo Hernandez scored the decisive penalty in Hamburg.

Concerns over the form and fitness of captain Kylian Mbappe have persisted, as Real Madrid’s newest ‘galactico’ was forced off before the shootout. Despite Mbappe’s struggles, France has managed to find a way to advance. They have scored only four goals in their five Euro 2024 matches, three of which came from penalties or own goals. The inability to find the back of the net remains a major concern in the business end of the competition.

France’s style may not be as aesthetically pleasing as Spain’s, but they have been effective. They beat Spain 2-1 in their most recent meeting, the 2021 Nations League final, and few would bet against them in this semi-final clash. SoccerSouls predicts a close clash with little to separate them on the night. We take a look at how both sides could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.

Team News and Predicted XI

Spain

Spain’s close win over Germany in the last eight came with a cost. Daniel Carvajal and Robin Le Normand are both suspended for the game while midfield maestro Pedri will miss the rest of the tournament thanks to a medial collateral ligament sprain. De La Fuente will hope that his squad can make up for the three absences.

La Roja are expected to line up in their traditional 4-3-3 formation with the excellent Unai Simon in goal. Real Madrid skipper Nacho and Aymeric Laporte should hold firm at centre-back with Jesus Navas and Marc Cucurella pushing forward at wing-back.

Rodri should once again form the pivot in the midfield, with Dani Olmo and Fabian Ruiz pushing forward. Skipper Alvaro Morata should lead the line with the electric duo of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams providing support.

Predicted Playing XI (4-3-3): Simon: Navas, Nacho, Laporte, Cucurella; Olmo, Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Morata, Williams

France

With the slate wiped clean regarding bookings, France have no disciplinary issues to worry about. However, Kylian Mbappe’s nose injury remains a source of concern for Didier Deschamps and his team.

The former Paris Saint-Germain striker has scored only one goal from 20 shots at Euro 2024 thus far and will need to discover his shooting boots to give France a good chance of making the final.

Deschamps is likely to continue with the 4-3-1-2 formation with the excellent Mike Maignan in goal. The AC Milan stopper should be protected by the back four of Jules Kounde, William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano and Theo Hernandez.

N’Golo Kante and Aurelien Tchouameni should form the double pivot in the midfield, freeing up Adrien Rabiot to push forward and help Antoine Griezmann in the number 10 role. Kylian Mbappe and Randal Kolo Muani will lead the line and hope to end their nation’s poor goalscoring form in the tournament.

Predicted Playing XI (4-3-1-2): Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Hernandez; Kante, Tchouameni, Rabiot; Griezmann; Kolo Muani, Mbappe

Key Stats

• Spain have advanced from four of their five European Championship semi-finals in history.
• A win on the night will see Spain become the first side to win six consecutive games in the same finals of the European Championships.
• Mike Maignan can boast a save ratio of 94%, the best ratio of any shot-stopper in the tournament.
• Both teams have faced off 36 times so far, with Spain coming out on top 16 times and France winning 13 games.
• Spain have won just one their six clashes against France at the European Championships.

Match Deciding Duel

Lamine Yamal (Spain) vs Theo Hernandez (France)

Lamal has certainly brought his A game to the tournament and will once again be Spain’s electric creator down their right flank. With Theo Hernandez and Adrien Rabiot likely to provide the thrust on the flanks for France, there will be space for Spain and Yamal to run into on the night.

This should work in the Iberian giants’ favour should Dani Olmo and Nico Williams stretch France, bringing Upamecano out of position. This should open up space for Morata to run into and cause havoc. Yamal’s eye for the audacious and his ability to get past players will certainly keep France on their toes.

Prediction

Spain 1-1 France (France to Progress on Penalties)

Given the stakes, the game is likely to be tightly contested. France have more match-winners in their squad and coupled with the absentees for Spain should give Les Bleus the advantage. The match is likely to go right down to the wire with Mike Maignan likely to come up trumps for his side in the penalty shootout.