Week 10: Corresponding Fixtures Table – Looking At Cardiff City

 It’s been three weeks since we looked at the Corresponding Fixtures table and there have been quite a few changes in the order. The major talking points of last week’s action were Arsenal’s convincing win over Liverpool at the Emirates which extended their lead at the top of the table to 5 points. Arsenal took advantage of Chelsea’s slip-up in the early kick off on Saturday, as the Blues succumbed to a tame 2-0 defeat at Newcastle United. Had Chelsea won this game -as they were widely expected to- they would have been just 2 points behind Arsenal in 2^nd place in the Premier League table. They would have also attained par score(0) in terms of our Corresponding points difference; they lost at St.James’ Park last season too. Instead, they are on -3 points in terms of points scored vis-a-vis the points scored from the same fixtures last season.

The other major talking point of last week was Cardiff’s win against Swansea in the first Welsh derby in the Premier League. In what was a high-stakes game, played in front of a raucous crowd, Cardiff put up a strong second half performance to win the local bragging rights. It was a tremendous win for Cardiff’s manager Malky Mackay, who has shown amazing composure and focus in the face of frequent meddling by eccentric owner Vincent Tan. Tan’s dismissal of head of recruitment, Iain Moody, who recruited Cardiff’s best performers Steven Caulker and Gary Medel had left Mackay furious and his position under the cloud. Under such circumstances, Mackay has steered the Cardiff ship very adeptly.

Before we look at the corresponding fixtures table, let’s look to reiterate the premise on which this table is built: Essentially, we are comparing the team which performed the “best” among the relegated sides with the best team in last year’s Championship; the 2^nd best among the relegated sides with the 2^nd best team in last year’s Championship; and the 3^rd best among the relegated sides with the 3^rd best team in last year’s Championship. So Cardiff City’s record is being compared to Wigan Athletic’s record (18th last season). Now here’s the corresponding fixtures’ table

Cardiff City have taken 4 more points from this season’s fixtures than Wigan took from the same set of fixtures last season and stand “6th” in this table. But their approach could not have been more different from Wigan. Cardiff’s approach, as was illustrated in the first half of the game against Swansea, is to keep it tight in defence and build on it to score a goal. Statistics bear testament to this. With total shots of 99 in 10 games so far- which comes to 9.9 per game- they are the second lowest in the league in terms of shots per game; only Fulham with 8.3 per game rank lower. With an average possession percentage of 44.2, they are 15^th in the league in terms of keeping the ball. This, interestingly, is the highest among the promoted sides; Crystal Palace and Hull have an average possession of 43.7%. This is in sharp contrast to the possession based football teams promoted to the Premier League over the past few years have adopted.

Swansea and Southampton are classic examples of this scenario. As has been said multiple times, a higher possession percentage does not necessarily translate to points, but it does give you a slightly better chance of winning football games. Given the fact that we are comparing Cardiff’s tally with Wigan, the contrast in average possession is quite stark. Last season, Wigan’s average possession percentage(despite getting relegated) stood at 54.4. Cardiff, it seems, have adopted tactics diametrically opposite to Wigan’s. Mackay must be credited , though ,for building a solid defensive base and trying to build on it. In fact, as alluded to here, this is pretty much a continuation of how Cardiff achieved promotion: substance over style.

In fact, statistics show that they are banking on their defensive bloodymindedness to survive in the Premier League. Mackay has built a defence that is organized. Cardiff have the highest “Shots Conceded per game” in the Premier League at 18.4 shots per game. This shows that they are ready to drop deep and face a barrage of shots from the opposition-either a sign of confidence in their defence or a lack of cutting edge in attacking options. The latter is true to some extent with Cardiff only finding the net 9 times in their 10 games so far, which places them 12^th in the goal scoring charts. It must be noted here that Tottenham Hotspur too have scored the same number of goals this season.

A quick summary of some statistics pertaining to this season’s promoted teams shows that all the 3 sides have, more or less, adopted the approach of ceding possession to achieve more defensive control. Of course, Crystal Palace have, so far, failed miserably to eke out any sort of result and look definite contenders to slip back into the Championship.

All the three promoted sides have eerily similar statistics, except for the number most essential for survival in the Premier League: the number of goals conceded. Crystal Palace have been poor thus far, while Cardiff and Hull have held the fort in the first quarter of the season. We can only wait and watch as to how these three sides respond to the battle for survival in the Premier League.

All the stats are complied from Whoscored.com